December 18, 2018

As we wait to see if Trump decides to close down the government over the wall he said Mexico was going to pay for, I was struck by a New York Times article discussing Mexico’s overtures to China. Trump’s arguments for the wall assume that Americans are stupid and that Mexicans are even more estupido. As it turns out, Mexico is not quite as estupido as Trump thinks they are.

First of all, Mexico is not paying for the wall. Trump claims that his NAFTA 2.0 is paying for the wall, but it obviously is not because he is still asking for $5B. Instead, Mexico is initiating a $30B Central American “Marshall Plan” to address the root causes of the waves of migration. How mature? Shouldn’t the United States applaud this initiative, and use the asked for border wall money to support this effort?

The pernicious wild card in all of this is the willingness of the Chinese to fill the vacuum left by the United States. As it turns out, Mexico is not so estupido. The know how to triangulate. They will play us against the Chinese. The Chinese are not so “ben” either. It may already be too late. If you were the Mexicans, given what happened in the last two years with NAFTA, the wall, and troops on the border, wouldn’t you be looking for a more stable trading partner? Part of the Trump legacy could be a China moving freely throughout Mexico. Mr. Trump, you are estupido.

December 11, 2018

Who is buried in Grant’s Tomb? I can now answer that question because I was just there. It is Ulysses S. and Julia Grant. Grant died penniless in Manhattan after being scammed by the Bernie Madoff of his day in a classic Ponzi scheme years before Charles Ponzi came along. His funeral in New York City, paid for by friends and admirers, attracted a million onlookers.

Rather than avoiding military duty, the West Point graduate enlisted in the Union army to fight The Confederacy and preserve the Union. Rather than demean his opponents, he treated them with dignity. He granted Robert E. Lee and the South humane and generous terms.

He insisted on the full political equality for slaves, and dignity for Indians. He was an ardent abolitionist, and stood up for free blacks against the Ku Klux Klan.

He established Yellowstone as the first National Park, which is arguably the first step in the conservation movement.

Grant was self-made man, a war hero, a defender of minorities, and an ardent conservationist. He spoke softly and took little credit. He acted decisively and aggressively when it mattered. He was dedicated to his family. He served two terms as President of the United States. Remind you of anyone?

December 7, 2018

During the last presidential election, I expressed sympathy for either candidate because he or she would inherit an economy that had been growing for eight years. We had very low unemployment and interest rates. There were inequalities, but there was no “carnage.” The country was doing well. As a former investment advisor, I suggested that people be careful with their money because markets cannot go up forever. There was no reason to believe that this time would be any different. What I did not anticipate was a reckless and irresponsible tax cut that was paid for by issuing more debt. In the world of finance, it would have been called a leveraged buyout with the American tax payer forced to hold junk bonds.

Well, as it turns out, this time is not different. Many economists, even those from Trump’s favorite investment bank, Goldman Sachs, are predicting a slow down in 2019 with a possible recession in 2020. The threat of tariffs just adds fuel to the fire. The stock market has dropped, and volatility has increased. Unfortunately, the Fed is out of bullets because it cannot lower interest rates, and Congress is out of bullets because it spent all the money. Ironically, it’s Pearl Harbor Day.

December 3, 2018

Former President George Herbert Walker Bush voted for Hillary Clinton. I voted for Charlie Baker. What is that saying about when pigs fly. My vote for Charlie Baker was hardly an heroic act of patriotism. It was not a profile in courage. He is direct, honest, and productive. However, how bad must it be when a former President, Vice President, UN Ambassador, Director of the CIA, Congressman, and war hero cannot vote for his party’s nominee? He described the current occupant of the White House as a “blowhard.” For the record, George W. Bush voted for none of the above. And how bad is it when a former president asks the current president to stay away from his wife’s funeral? The deceased President represents what was right about the Republican Party. He made the country safer and richer. The current President makes us less safe, and himself richer.

November 26, 2018

The next two years spell trouble for Trump. Let me count the ways.

1. After the shot of adrenaline to the economy provided by an unpaid for tax cut, many leading economists are predicting a slow down in 2019 with a possible recession in 2020. Bad timing.

2. The Mueller investigation will come to fruition.

3. Congressional inquiries into conflicts of interest, the Trump Foundation, Saudi Arabia, Ryan Zinke, DeVos, Mark Whitaker, child separation, e-mails, and more will hamstring the administration.

4. Global warming will become a bigger issue in 2020, especially among millennials.

5. 2020 promises huge voter turnout, which favors the Democratic Party.

6. There is no obvious Republican agenda for the next two years.

7. Healthcare will be front and center, not a winning issue for Trump.

8. Infrastructure proposals will stall over Republican refusals to pay for it with tax hikes.

9. The make up of the new Democratic House of Representatives includes record numbers of women. “ Hell hath no fury as a woman scorned.”

10. Increases in Democratic governorships will help rein in gerrymandering and voter suppression initiatives. The electoral map, especially in the Senate, favors Democrats.

11. Tariffs backfire.

12. Interest rates rise, and stock markets fall.