September 8, 2019

In the Sunday New York Times magazine, the writer asks, “Is Fredo a movie reference or an ethnic slight?” Let me ask a different question. If you were to walk into a bar, see a black person, and call him “Buckwheat,” would that be a racial slight? I am old enough to remember “Amos and Andy” with all of its characters like Lightning, Kingfish, and Sapphire. I do not think that any African-American would consider being called any of those names a compliment. I am a conscientious objector when it comes to Mafia movies. I admit there is some great entertainment provided by “The Godfather,” “Goodfellas,” and “The Sopranos,” but I choose not to indulge. I prefer “The Agony and the Ecstasy” or anything by Fellini.

September 7, 2019

Bob Dylan famously sang, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” Apparently, you do if you are the President of the United States. Sharpie-gate is just the theater of the absurd. More importantly, POTUS only has to look out his window at Mar-a-Lago to see the ravages of climate change. New Orleans, Puerto Rico, and now The Bahamas were leveled. We had the hottest summer on record. Nero fiddles while California burns. What is it going to take to get the Queen of Denial to see what everyone else sees? Maybe mass casualties, but that hasn’t helped in the gun debate.

One would think that the human equivalent of disastrous hurricanes, mass shootings, would cause POTUS to look out the window to see which way the wind is blowing. Unfortunately, he is more concerned with what the wind might do to his coif than he is about meaningful gun reform. It’s okay if innocents get slaughtered as long as every hair is glued in place.

If you keep ignoring what is clearly in front of you, Mr. POTUS, “a hard rain’s a-gonna fall,” and it’s gonna fall on you.

September 5, 2019

In his book, “Games People Play (1964),” Dr. Eric Berne describes human interaction as a series of transactions between parts of our egos defined as Parent, Adult, and Child. I find his analysis to be very useful in understanding the state of politics today, and the state-of-mind of our current President.

An Adult-to-Adult exchange involves the sharing of facts and observations. There is no hidden agenda tainted by past experiences as either a Parent or a Child. It is sober and unemotional. A constructive dialog involves an Adult comment followed by an equally Adult response. This is how we and, hopefully, our elected officials spend most of our time.

However, things go awry when an Adult comment is followed by an inappropriate response from either the Parent or the Child ego states. If one were to be criticized by a well-researched and fact-based article in the media, whether you agree with it or not, the appropriate Adult response would be to counter the argument with additional facts and observations, possibly giving the writer of the article more information and a better understanding than he had originally. An inappropriate response would be to call the writer names and question his integrity. This is something a Child would do. Labeling all disagreeable media as “fake” news is an example of this. Giving your political opponents pejorative nicknames is another example.

A Parent might make a different, and equally inappropriate response. He would criticize the writer, and scold him as a parent would do to a child. He would threaten to punish the writer. He would threaten to take away his privileges, and threaten him with corporal punishment. He would even threaten to send him to his room (jail.) There would be no discussion. He claims to be wiser and smarter than you, and it’s his way or the highway. The danger is that the Adult gets hooked by the Parent, and comes back with a Child-like response, making the Adult look equally as irresponsible.

Hillary Clinton tried to be an Adult, but came off as a Parent. She was the scold. She knew what was best for us, and wanted us to eat our vegetables. Donald Trump was the classic rebellious Child. I am not going to eat vegetables. I like fast food. “I’m not a puppet. You’re a puppet.” What Child has not wanted to lock up his Parents at one time or another? On stage, Trump acts out his Child-like tendencies, and the crowds, empowered to release their inner Childs, are more than eager to join in with the bad boy. It’s “Lord of the Flies.” In 2020, we need an Adult.

September 5, 2019

Gaffe vs. Lie

I don’t think I am an apologist for Joe Biden, but I find all of the coverage he is getting for making gaffes very tiresome. Running to Merriam Webster’s is a crutch, but a gaffe is defined as a social or diplomatic blunder. A gaffe is not ideal, but it is not evil. A lie, on the other hand, is defined as an untrue statement with intent to deceive. The word “intent” is stressed. The person lying is well aware that what he is saying is not true. Per the Washington Post, Donald Trump has lied over 12,000 times. In other words, he has intended to deceive you over 12,000 times. Let that sink in. I find it unimaginable that some are trying to create a false equivalency between Trump’s lying and Biden’s gaffeing. Stuart Varney of Fox News actually said that he believed that Trump has never lied. Following that line of reasoning and incredible level of rationalization, Biden has never made a gaffe. Neither statement is obviously true. I can deal with an occasional, unharmful, unintentional gaffe. Can you deal with a steady stream of destructive lies?

August 28, 2019

Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee would like nothing else than to make Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes the face of the Democratic Party. They are using AOC to raise funds. She did arrive in Washington, DC in a swirl of publicity because of some controversial policies and sound bites, but she is no more the face of the Democratic Party than Steven King (R-OK) is the face of the Republican Party. I could make the case that King’s racial and insensitive comments have been more destructive and hateful than anything AOC has come even close to saying, but that is not the point. Donald Trump is the face of the Republican Party. Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, and others are the faces of the Democratic Party. Even though almost everything is fair game in politics, I would urge the RNC to not exploit freshmen back benchers. Pick on someone your own size.

August 27, 2019

My personal list of Trump outrages just hit 175. It is probably not exhaustive, but this milestone, or is that millstone, was completed by Trump’s non-presence at the G-7 meeting on global warming and climate change. I haven’t even included his lies about his wife knowing Kim Jong-un, and his bad-mouthing of a former President in favor of Vladimir Putin. The Amazon burns while Trump fiddles. We knew that Trump was an empty suit, all Tweet and no meat, but, now, he is also an empty chair. What a stunning visual commentary to see the leaders of the free world discussing the perils of the climate sans Trump.

Trump is MIA. He is isolated, and irrelevant. The world’s leaders have moved on. It is embarrassing and destructive. We no longer lead. It is stunning how quickly this has happened, and how complicit the Republican Party has been in the process. We had an empty chair at the G-7, but we still have an empty chair in the Oval Office. He is an empty suit. Maybe it’s time for a dress.

August 24, 2019

“I don’t want politicians to litigate the past. I want someone to mitigate the future.”

August 21, 2019

If you are an employer and/or a job creator, and you helped to put Donald Trump in the White House, I have to seriously question your judgement. Worse, your employees should be questioning your judgement. James Fallows, in a recent article in The Atlantic, makes the persuasive case that Donald Trump is totally unqualified for any job other than President of the United States. You have effectively hired someone for the most important job in the world, who is the most unqualified individual imaginable. He is an HR nightmare.

If one of your employees lied multiple times a day, every day, he would be fired. If one of your employees constantly and openly denigrated women, people of color, and non-Christians, he would be fired. If one of your employees publicly mocked his subordinates, he would be fired. If one of your employees acted inappropriately towards women, he would be fired. If one of your employees ignored your company’s plans, shot from the hip, and then denied doing it, he would be fired. I could go on, but you hopefully get my point.

You have a position of responsibility, yet you hired this guy. If this is an example of your decision-making ability, why shouldn’t you be fired?

August 19, 2019

As a former investment advisor, I think all the time about what I would advise my former colleagues and clients about whether a recession is coming and how to deal with it. In the spirit of full disclosure, I was confident two years ago regardless of who won the election that we were facing a slowdown after eight years of growth under the Obama administration. Interest rates were low, and labor markets were tight. Inflation was under control, but there was no place to go but down. What I didn’t predict was a massive, deficit-increasing tax cut at exactly the wrong time in the economic cycle, which poured gasoline on the fire.

Now the bills are coming due, and Trump, as his his fashion, doesn’t want to pay them. In his mind, which is dominated by conspiracy theories, he thinks that the Federal Reserve and the media are conspiring to thwart his recovery. In the words of Bill Belichick, they are just doing their jobs.

It has been a long time, but the stock market does not owe you anything. Be careful, be diversified, and be liquid. No one ever got hit by a bus they saw coming.