February 13, 2020
Somewhere lost in the haze of the New Hampshire primary and Trump’s unprecedented takeover of the Justice Department was a story that we should all be concerned about. It is a story that we are all too familiar with. Consumer debt just set an all-time record of $1.4T, and it was propelled by mortgage debt and refinancings. Also, at a dangerous rate, people are maxing out their credit cards. Where have we seen this movie before? It could have won an Academy Award in 2008 for best horror movie.
Consumers are clearly taking their cues from Trump economic policies. At a point in the economic cycle when we should be saving our money in case of an economic downturn, consumers, like Trump, are betting this can go on forever as long as we keep layering on more and more debt. Trump’s budget projects more trillion dollar deficits. The Federal Reserve is out of bullets. Job creation has slowed, and manufacturing is down. The consumer, betting on leverage, is the only thing keeping the economy afloat. How did that strategy work for Trump’s casinos?
It is not different this time. No one ever got hit by a bus they saw coming. Here comes Peter Pan.
The Spin Doctor 