December 8, 2025
Just as I was getting ready to submit this column, Mitt Romney dropped a New York Times op-ed piece titled, “Tax the Rich, Like Me.” They say that great minds think alike, but I believe that greater minds think independently. However, on this, we agree. Romney may not have any more Veritas than I do, but her certainly has a lot more gravitas. I suggest you read his column for yourself.
During the holidays, everyone likes a story with a Hallmark ending. Unfortunately, real life often does not cooperate. That clock you hear ticking is not your biological clock, or the Doomsday clock. It is the U.S. National Debt Clock. Our national debt is a ticking time bomb that will explode some day. Herbert Stein, who served as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Richard Nixon, famously said “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” The national debt today stands at around $38T, which is about 119% of GDP. We now spend more on interest payments than we do on the national defense. The annual Federal budget deficit is 3% of GDP. Eliminating that would require eliminating all defense spending or all non-discretionary spending.
The two major drivers of our current deficits are inadequate revenues (taxes), and escalating healthcare costs (Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.) According to economist, Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harper Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at the Kennedy School of Government, a country can move off an unsustainable debt path in six ways: faster economic growth, lower interest rates, default, inflation, financial repression, or fiscal austerity. For the sake of argument, I am going to dismiss the first five. Despite Trump’s claims to be overseeing the greatest economy of all time, we have been growing at 2-3% for decades. Trump has been jawboning the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Federal Reserve has limits to what it can and will do. Default is not an option short of precipitating a worldwide financial collapse. Inflation as a strategy is the third rail of politics. Financial repression implies governmental controls over the economy, which smacks of socialism. That leaves fiscal austerity.
In the U.S., Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are the main long-term debt drivers due to aging demographics. There are several options for reining in healthcare costs. We can raise eligibility ages slowly as life expectancies increase. We can adjust benefits for higher-income beneficiaries. We can reform healthcare pricing by controlling the cost of drugs. We can shift Medicare pricing from a volume to a value model. We can change the eligibility requirements for qualifying for Medicaid. The reality is that no serious debt plan works without entitlement reform. Math makes this unavoidable.
On the other side of the coin, we have tax reform, which includes adjusting the tax base, and closing loopholes. The U.S. generally has lower overall tax rates than other developed, high-income countries. Our corporate tax rates are lower than most. We certainly have room for adjustments. We could broaden the tax base by reducing special exemptions like the carried interest loophole. We could eliminate the tax-deductibility of many middle and upper class benefits. We could curtail the use of trust accounts to avoid taxation. We could impose a minimum tax on large corporations that pay little or nothing. We could strengthen IRS enforcement against high-income tax invasion.
There are things we can do, but we don’t seem to have the political will or the discipline to do anything meaningful. Neither side seems to be willing to compromise. The Republican blueprint going back to Paul Ryan and earlier has always been to cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations, and rely on the miracle of trickle down economics to satisfy everyone else. They cite the Laffer aka Laugher Curve as evidence. Their strategy is to create a debt crisis, which would then necessitate cuts to the social safety net. Democrats for their part are not willing to give an inch on social programs until they get tax concessions from the Republicans. We are not willing to take responsibility for our current state of affairs, and make the necessary compromises and sacrifices. Only a credible plan to restrain deficits and control our debt will ultimately keep our creditors happy.