DOGE

January 21, 2025

It didn’t take Trump very long to say that he was just kidding about a lot of the campaign promises he made. He is not going to deport millions of undocumented workers. It turns out that it is logistically impossible and possible illegal so he is going to focus on criminals. He is going to kick Tik Tok down the road for 90 days while he “studies” the issue. Tik Tok may get into a collision with tariffs, which have also been kicked down the road until February because it turns out that tariffs are inflationary. He is not sure how he is actually going to bring food and gas prices down, or reduce the level of inflation and unemployment. His solution to solving the California wildfires was to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord while repeating his childish mantra, “Drill, Baby, Drill.” At least he made good on one promise by pardoning 1,500, convicted J6’ers. That is something Trump voters can be proud of. They will also be bursting with patriotic pride when he sells Ukraine down the river to the Communists because there is nothing Trump won’t sell to make a buck. Ironically, he has accused Democrats of being Communists, and wanting a classless society. However, what can be more classless that selling commemorative meme cryptocurrency tokens at your own inauguration?

I could go on, but I find it to be soul sapping. Nobel Prize winner for Economics, Paul Krugman, recently retired from the New York Times editorial board. He left a vacuum, which I am going to try and fill in a nerdy discussion about Elon Musk and DOGE. DOGE stands for something, but not much. Musk and Trump have promised to reduce the size of the Federal government, and reduce the size of the federal budget by $2T. But, the numbers don’t add up. Apparently, Vivek Ramaswamy figured that out, and headed for the hills of Ohio. Here are the facts and the numbers.

The easy fixes have already been made. The big bucks go to national defense, social insurance, and debt service. The federal payroll has already shrunk dramatically in relation to the scale of government. Creating better procedures for federal contracting and eliminating no- show employees is always a good thing, but the real upside is very limited. Greater efficiency alone would make only a small difference. Federal spending is $7T while revenues are at $5T, thanks in part to the Trump tax cuts for the rich and famous, which will most likely be extended or made permanent. Total compensation for federal employees is only $250B, and most of that is at the departments of defense, veterans affairs and homeland security. These departments are virtually off limits. Federal employment has been flat for decades. On the other hand, tax “cheats” cost the government $500B per year, but Elon wants to cut the IRS. Substantial deficit reduction requires the unpopular steps of cutting back government benefits and services and increasing taxes.

Elon and other right wing ideologues complain that federal employees need to come to the office five days a week. However, only 10% of federal employees are fully remote, which is less than the private sector. The idea that the federal workforce is working from home is false. The issue is not rampant inefficiency and a bloated bureaucracy. Rather, it is a lack of investment in the building blocks of effective governance: people, processes and policies. We have long underinvested in our government. We have twice as many workers over sixty as under 30. Younger people have less interest in working in government. We need to invest in these people, not vilify them. Expecting more from government is reasonable and essential, but cutting funding from already strained systems only deepens frustrations. Nominating department heads with no experience and only a political agenda will not solve real issues.

At the end of the day, DOGE is just political grandstanding and theater. No one really wants to get their hands dirty, or make the hard decisions. Like many of his other promises, Trump will kick this one down the road. At the rate he is going, his agenda is going to look like the Los Angeles freeway at rush hour.