Change is Difficult

September 19, 2024

After the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a vast majority of the people polled told pollsters that Harris had won the debate. The margins were about 65-35. People heard crazy stuff from Trump about immigrants eating pets. They heard Trump’s tortured explanation about how Kamala Harris wasn’t black until she decided to be black. Trump ranted about crowd size, which may be his original sin, and once again doubled down on the big lie and all that entails. It was a tour de force that drove many Republicans into hiding, and Independents into thinking.

Subsequently, undecided voters were asked by pollsters about how they felt about the two candidates, and whether or not their feelings had changed. In many of the interviews, the responses were along the lines of “I am moving a little closer to Harris.” “The door is open, but I am not quite there yet.” “I have always voted Republican, and it would be difficult for me to vote for a Democrat.” These undecideds/Independents were obviously having difficulty processing the new information about Trump. What is going on here?

In the second half of the twentieth century, one of the most influential social psychologists of the time was Leon Festinger. Festinger was in a league with Harvard behavioral scientist B.F. Skinner, child development psychologist Jean Piaget, the founder of psychoanalysis Sigmund Freud, and social psychologist Albert Bandura. Festinger originated the theory of cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is the psychological discomfort experienced when a person holds two or more contradictory beliefs, values, or attitudes simultaneously, or when their behavior conflicts with their beliefs. The theory suggests that people are motivated to reduce this discomfort by either changing their beliefs, justifying their behavior, or minimizing the significance of the inconsistency. For example, if someone values health but smokes, they might experience cognitive dissonance. To reduce the discomfort, they might quit smoking, justify it by downplaying the health risks, or tell themselves they will quit in the future.

Cognitive dissonance is highly relevant in politics, as individuals often encounter conflicting information that challenges their political beliefs or actions.

1. Partisan Loyalty vs. Contradictory Evidence: When people strongly identify with a political party or ideology, they may experience cognitive dissonance if presented with evidence that their party or leader acted against their principles. To reduce dissonance, they may dismiss or downplay the evidence, question its validity, or reinterpret the information to align with their beliefs. This is often seen in the way partisans handle scandals or policy failures involving their preferred party.

2. Voter Rationalization: Cognitive dissonance can explain why voters might continue supporting a politician despite behaviors or policies that contradict their own values. For instance, if someone votes for a candidate who later enacts policies they disagree with, they may rationalize their vote by focusing on the candidate’s other positive qualities or by minimizing the importance of the conflicting policies.

3. Echo Chambers and Media Consumption: To avoid cognitive dissonance, individuals may seek out news sources or social media communities that reinforce their existing beliefs, a phenomenon known as the “echo chamber” effect. By consuming information that confirms their worldview, they avoid the discomfort of confronting contradictory perspectives.

4. Policy Change and Belief Adjustment: Politicians themselves might experience cognitive dissonance when their actions (e.g., compromising on policies) conflict with their stated principles. To resolve this dissonance, they might publicly adjust their stance or justify their behavior in ways that realign with their personal or party’s ideology.

You can hear in the voices of the undecideds how difficult it is for them to do something that they have never done before, and something that generations of their family members before them had never done before. It is painful for them to vote for a Democrat when all of their neighbors and friends are Republicans. Hopefully, by November 5th, they can resolve their angst. As Geoff Duncan, former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Georgia said at the Democratic National Convention, “Voting for Kamala Harris doesn’t make you a Democrat. It makes you a patriot.” John F. Kennedy said that change is the law of life. Hopefully, voters who are in limbo are prepared to follow the law.